The bubble, the bubble, the bubble. Yeah, that’s all the talk in February in college basketball. But here are 11 other conundrums the final weeks of the regular season can help answer.
Does Eric Dixon hang on to be the season scoring champion?
The Villanova graduate student has been at the top since mid-December but the average has eased a bit to 23.2. He was over 20 points in 16 of his first 19 games, but only one of the past six. Still, he’s on course to be Villanova’s first scoring champion since 1950 and the third from the Big East in 12 seasons. If the games stopped today his average would be the second lowest to lead the nation since 1949.
Right behind in second at 22.0 is a guy only 15 miles away from Villanova, Jamal Mashburn Jr. at Temple. It’s a Philadelphia thing.
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Does Alabama repeat as the most potent offense in Division I?
At the moment, the Tide are the only team averaging north of 90 points a game, at 90.3. They were tops last season at 90.1. Programs tend to do this in bunches; Gonzaga and VMI each had five-season streaks this century. So it goes on the Nate Oats watch. Alabama has broken the 100-point barrier 96 times in its 112-year history and 29 percent of them (28) have come in Oats’ six seasons. The Tide have made it there 17 times in the past two years and currently have gone an SEC record eight consecutive road games with scoring at least 85.
But owning the loudest offense does not always pay off big in March. Only two national champions in the past 60 NCAA Tournaments — North Carolina in 2005 and Villanova in 2018 — led the country in scoring.
Can St. John’s win its first Big East regular season title in 33 years?
The Red Storm are closing in, leading by two games with five to play. Three of the five are against the bottom teams in the league, DePaul, Butler and Seton Hall. But there’s also a game at Marquette. Thirteen different schools have won the Big East since St. John’s last did.
The Red Storm have been doing it the hard way. Their past five games have all been decided by six points or under.
Can Michigan make history in the Big Ten?
Only one team has ever gone from last place to winning the Big Ten the next year, and that was Indiana in 1967. A season ago the Wolverines finished last in the league, 3-17 and inhaling everyone’s fumes at four games behind the pack. At the moment they’re a game in the lead at 12-2. And they had a lot more teams to pass than the Hoosiers back in ‘67.
But the worst-to-first mission has a dangerous last stretch. Michigan still has two games with second place Michigan State, and home games with Illinois and surging Maryland. Four of the final six games are home and the Wolverines are 12-0 there, but if it comes down to the last Sunday of the regular season, they’ll be in East Lansing facing Tom Izzo.
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Who wins the most improved award?
Speaking of Michigan. And Louisville. And Missouri. Those three are the power conference contenders for the mythical title, and it’s going to the wire. Michigan has jumped from 8-24 to 20-5, an improvement so far of 15.5.
Close behind is Louisville, from 8-26 to 20-6. Then Missouri, from 8-24 to 19-6.
Each can make a case. Michigan has not only shined up its record but is in first place in the Big Ten. Louisville is in rapid recovery after going 12-52 the past two years. Missouri was 0-18 in league play last season and has remade itself in the cement mixer that is the SEC, jumping to 8-4.
As mentioned, the Wolverines have a rugged final few holes. Missouri must still meet Alabama and Kentucky. Good news for Louisville is that four of its last five ACC games are home. Better news is that none of the last five opponents are named Duke. Best news of all is the Cardinals aren’t trying to do this in the SEC. They’re 20-2 against everyone else this season, but 0-4 against SEC opponents.
Will Kansas find its mojo?
When it all began, the Jayhawks were the No. 1 team in the country, and now they’re 17-8 and barely clinging to a spot in the Associated Press rankings this week at No. 23. They’ve been on a win-loss-win-loss teeter-totter for nearly a month, and are tied for fifth in the Big 12. They have six conference losses, and 14 in two seasons. That’s the most for Kansas over a two-year period since 1984.
Bill Self has righted a good many ships in his time, but the road to feeling better is not easy over the last six games. The final three are against Texas Tech, Houston and Arizona. Those would be the top three teams currently in the Big 12. So the Jayhawks will have a chance to send the message they haven’t gone anywhere. Or not.
Can Wisconsin finish off a record-breaking season at the free throw line?
The current Badgers free throw percentage is 83.7, finest in the nation. The all-time record is 83.0, set four years ago by Villanova. This is not quite like a spelling bee where one goof and you’re done, but there’s not much room for error if Wisconsin is to stay ahead of Villanova. The Badgers do seem up to it. The lowest free throw percentage on their starting five is 76.9. Leading scorer John Tonje has taken 166 free throws this season and missed 14. Included in Wisconsin’s handiwork has been 36-for-37 its first two games of the season, and later 41-for-47 against Arizona, and 25-for-27 against Butler.
But nobody is perfect from 15 feet. John Blackwell had the first two free throws of the game for the Badgers at Purdue last weekend. Missed them both. The crowd went wild because there is a local promotional prize whenever an opponent clangs two in a row. Free fries! Good thing for Wisconsin, things returned to normal and the Badgers made 18 of the next 22.
What player will be in the fire for more minutes per game than anyone?
It’s an interesting question because No. 1 on the list at the moment is a transfer guard at Drake. So is No. 2. Bennett Stirtz has been going 38.56 minutes a game for the Bulldogs. Mitch Mascari is right behind at 38. This 1-2 punch of heavy work load also leads Drake in scoring. Stritz at 18.5, Muscari at 11.3. Both came with new coach Ben McCollum from Northwest Missouri State.
All those minutes on the court have not been misspent. Drake is 23-3.
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Can Houston win its conference, again?
The Cougars were champions four of their last five seasons in the American Conference. Then they moved to the Big 12. Who invited these guys, anyway? They won the title their first crack at it, they’re two games ahead now. Of their last six tests, the Feb. 24 trip to Texas Tech should be particularly compelling. The Red Raiders were the bunch who barged into Houston to begin the month, put 82 points on Houston’s proud defense, and won in overtime.
Can Akron and Yale run the table?
They are the last Division I teams still unbeaten in conference play. Akron is 12-0 and if the Zips close it out, they’ll be first team in the Mid-American Conference to not lose in league play since Miami in 1958. Yale is 9-0 and will be playing its final three Ivy League games on the road.
How will the Sun Belt sort out?
Witness the most chaotic traffic jam the top in college basketball, with four teams tied for the lead in the final weeks at 10-4. From left to right, that’s Arkansas State, James Madison, South Alabama and Troy. There is but one game left between any of the contenders and that’s South Alabama at Arkansas State Wednesday. They’ll all have to make their final statements against the stragglers in the standings.
Arkansas State has had one of the liveliest seasons anywhere. The Red Wolves began with an overtime over Akron, the team with the perfect MAC record. They were tied with Alabama with seven minutes left and lost by nine. They visited Memphis and knocked over the No. 16 Tigers by 13 points. They came from 27 points down in the second half to defeat UAB by nine in overtime. They just lost at Kent State the other day 76-75 in a game with 13 ties and 25 lead changes, the last on two Kent State free throws with 15 seconds left.
Yeah, but in their first game against South Alabama they lost by 14. But South Alabama lost to Troy, who lost to Arkansas State, who lost to James Madison, who lost to South Alabama by 28. See the tangle?
College basketball waits eagerly for March, but February still has a few things to say, too.
