The first round of the NBA Draft tips off Wednesday night, with the second round to follow on Thursday. With 58 picks between the two nights (30 in the first round and 28 in the second), here are 58 things you need to know to be totally caught up before the picks start coming off the board.
The first two things to know
This is not a good draft (1). That isn’t to say there won’t be an all-star to eventually come out of it, but right now, there is less perceived star power atop the draft then there has been since 2013.
But … you can find value (2). Scouts widely consider there to be quality brewing in the middle of the first round. The overall depth is no less than most years.
The ‘French Invasion’
It is very possible that the first two players selected in this year’s draft are both from France (3). That would be unprecedented in NBA Draft history. Zaccharie Risacher and Alex Sarr are those players. Sarr, a mobile 7-footer and potentially elite defender, was trending as the likely first pick for a long time, but never ended up working out for Atlanta and now looks likely to go to Washington. Risacher is a big, 6-9 wing who both shoots it well from behind the three-point line and is considered a plus defender.
Who else will go in the top half of the lottery?
Two-time national champion Donovan Clingan (4) still has a chance to be the top overall pick, but could also fall as low as seven. He’s a defensive anchor with massive size and emerging offensive skill that has drawn comparisons to the likes of Rudy Gobert and Marc Gasol.
Former four-star prospect Reed Sheppard (5) exceeded all expectations this year at Kentucky, shooting over 52% from the three-point line, while simultaneously being a statistical darling with his +/- numbers and defensive playmaking. Then, he surprised everyone again by registering the best vertical leap (tied with two others) at the NBA combine.
One of several former five-star prospects in the high school class of 2023 expected to hear their name called early, Matas Buzelis (6) is a big wing or combo-forward of sorts who has some playmaking ability, shooting potential, and athleticism. He spent this year at G League Ignite.
Another former top-10 prospect in last year’s high school class, Stephon Castle (7) won a national championship at UConn this season by being the team’s top perimeter defender as a freshman. Scouts love his perimeter size, strength, positional versatility, and potential to play both on and off the ball.
Three players who are underrated
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Ron Holland (8) finished as the top overall prospect in high school basketball a year ago. This season, at G League Ignite, Holland averaged over 20 points, six rebounds and three assists. Scouts are concerned with his shooting and assist-to-turnover ratio, but he’s an athletic big wing, ultra-competitive, and able to get downhill.
This is becoming a trendy pick in recent days, but we’ve been singing the praises of Devin Carter (9) since he was in high school. Carter may be the most competitive player in this draft, he’s also one of the best athletes. He grew up around the NBA and made huge strides this year at Providence as an offensive creator.
Tidjane Salaun (10) is the Frenchman that no one is talking about, but I believe his upside is significant. He’s still just 18 years old, has a powerful natural physique that could really explode in the coming years, and an elite motor. If you believe in his shooting, or upside of skill, there are even more reasons for optimism.
Six decisions that could shape this draft
Risacher or Clingan? The Atlanta Hawks appear primarily focused on Risacher and Clingan headed into Wednesday’s draft, and with Sarr close to already penciled in to Washington at two, Atlanta’s choice (11) will create a ripple effect for several teams picking in the top half of the lottery.
Do the Rockets trade the pick? With Memphis being considered their most probable trade partner, and Clingan being the player they’re interested in, this scenario (12) is only plausible if Atlanta picks Risacher, and Sarr goes to Washington as expected. If not, don’t be surprised to see Sheppard go in the top 3.
Is shooting a requisite in San Antonio? San Antonio, which picks at Nos. 4 and 8, has been linked to players like Risacher, Sheppard, Castle, Knecht, Buzelis, and Salaun. Some of the most recent intel suggests the Spurs might be less willing (13) to roll the dice on more questionable shooters around Wemby, making players like Risacher, Sheppard, and Knecht among their top priorities.
Does Detroit have a surprise? Buzelis-to-Detroit is one of the most widely held assumptions in this draft, but it’s really just an assumption (14) as this is Trajan Langdon’s first draft making the pick himself, meaning we not only have no draft history to go off of, but also don’t know how much he values Detroit’s previous picks in his roster rebuild.
What else gets dealt? With no glaring star power in this year’s draft, the perception (15) is that we could see more teams drafting for fit, higher in the draft than normal. With OKC and Chicago swapping Josh Giddey for Alex Caruso, and Sacramento re-signing Malik Monk, we’ve already seen three teams in the lottery potentially tweak exactly what they’re looking for.
Is this a big-man market? Conventional NBA Draft logic suggests that true centers are under-valued, but with Clingan being considered at No. 1, Zach Edey getting some late lottery buzz, and other bigs like Yves Missi, Kel’el Ware, and DaRon Holmes all being talked about as potential first-round picks, we might be seeing a subtle shift in philosophy (16).
Six boom-or-bust prospects
Cody Williams (17) is a big, high-upside wing who is long and an ultra-fluid mover. Williams is a good three-point shooter and may even have some creation potential. The risk is that the potential has always exceeded the production, dating back to high school, and while the tools are absolutely that of a lottery pick, the lack of production to this point is not.
Even before his injury, Nikola Topic (18) was a bit of a polarizing prospect because while he had great positional size, floor vision, passing and an ability to get paint touches, he was neither a dynamic athlete nor a consistent shooter. The potential he misses all of next season just makes him all the more divisive among evaluators.
Rob Dillingham (19), like Sheppard – albeit to a somewhat lesser extent — exceeded all expectations this year at Kentucky. He’s absolutely dynamic with the ball in his hands, as both a shooter and a handler, but he’s undersized, very weak physically, and a downright bad defender.
Kyshawn George (20) is a late-blooming big wing who is smooth and has a beautiful shooting stroke. The concerns are that he has never been consistently productive against quality competition, averaging 7.6 points this season at Miami after putting up 2.7 points with Chalon-Sur-Saone the previous season.
It has been the same story with Kel’el Ware (21) since high school. There aren’t many big men with more natural talent – size, hands, touch, mobility, athleticism, shooting potential – but unfortunately there’s a long history of underachieving, albeit with some late gains this year at Indiana, and persistent questions about motor and physicality.
A five-star in 2023, Isaiah Collier (22) is a true point guard with a powerful build who can really pass, but he didn’t consistently defend last year, had a high turnover rate, and is an inconsistent shooter. I think the defense will evolve, but the former five-star has got to be able to make open shots at a reliable enough rate.
Five players with the highest floors
The lack of glaring star power atop the draft has created a scenario where prospects with higher floors are being talked about at the very top of the draft:
The questions for Alex Sarr (23) are on the offensive end and with regard to how much he can build up his body, but even without those areas, Sarr’s defensive tools should translate early and significantly in the modern NBA.
We know Donovan Clingan (24) is massive inside, a major defensive deterrent, and has a high aptitude for playing in offensive structure. That alone makes Clingan a very solid option. If the shooting hits, as many have projected, the outcomes get much more optimistic.
While there’s plenty of debate about Reed Sheppard’s upside (26) as a playmaker or creator, what is undeniable is Sheppard’s shooting, competitiveness, aptitude for the game and even defensive playmaking are all well-suited to make him a role player extraordinaire at minimum.
The 3-and-D archetype is arguably the most coveted among complementary players in the league. Zaccharie Risacher’s (27) overlap of size, shooting, and defense should make him a solid pro for a long time. Whether he develops any offensive creativity or playmaking will determine how far beyond that he can go.
All the reasons I’m higher on Devin Carter (27) than most — the competitiveness, defense, athleticism, steady improvement, and that he grew up around the league — are going to make the Providence product a productive NBA player for a long time. If the offensive growth continues, he may be more than that.
The four most ready-to-play guys
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These players have stable floors and can play a role right now.
Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht (28) may be the most NBA-ready perimeter scorer in th draft with his shooting and pull-up game, and there are higher level outcomes that are possible too.
Same story with Devin Carter (29), who I clearly love. He can do what he does right now, and if the growth keeps coming, people will be sorry they passed on him.
Colorado wing Tristan da Silva (30) is a “plug and play” type of option, because he’s capable of playing minutes off the bench right now as someone who can space the floor, be a reliable decision-maker, and trustworthy on both ends of the floor.
Similar to da Silva, Creighton’s Baylor Scheierman (31) fits that same plug-and-play prototype. The southpaw is a very good three-point shooter and a particularly good passer and decision-maker when he can be a secondary domino in someone’s offense.
There just aren’t many near-7-footers who can dribble, pass, and shoot, even in the NBA. Kyle Filipowski (32) is one of them, and so while he played a more signature role at Duke, he should be able to slide into a complimentary spot in a rotation right away.
The four best shooters in the draft
Reed Sheppard (33) shot 52% from behind the arc in college, which is absolutely ridiculous especially when we’re talking about a pretty high volume of attempts, with over 4 per game. He was in the 100th percentile as a jump shooter in all of college basketball last year,: 99th on catch-and-shoots, and 98th on unguarded, meaning open spot-up, shots.
Dalton Knecht (34) was nearly 40% from the three-point line, but proved himself to be a real tough shot-maker, off catch the catch and the dribble, from multiple ranges and spots on the floor. He’s the type of shooter you can run off screens and design actions for at the next level.
Jared McCain (35) may have the most balanced shooting stroke of any player in the draft. Ironically, he stood out at Duke more as a tough shot-maker (95th percentile when guarded) then he did as an open catch-and-shoot threat (65th). Nonetheless, he’s going to have extreme gravity as a spacer.
Kentucky enigma Rob Dillingham (36) is just a wizard with the ball in his hands, both in terms of his handle and quick-release jumpers. If you’re looking for someone who can create space for themselves, make tough shots deep in the clock, and be a threat to come off screens, Dillingham checks all three of those boxes.
Three other big men I love
This could be the year the big man comes back to the first round, not just with Sarr and Clingan, but with a handful of others who could hear their name called on night one.
Two-time college basketball player of the year Zach Edey (37) is a somewhat polarizing prospect among NBA scouts, but there’s significant buzz that he could be trending up boards towards the tail end of the lottery.
One of two Baylor freshmen expected to be taken in the first round, Yves Missi (38) is an athletic big who changes ends, protects the rim, and provides a vertical spacer.
DaRon Holmes (39) went back to Dayton for his junior season, and the decision is about to pay major dividends as he added three-point shooting to his known athleticism to play his way into first-round territory.
Big-name college stars to know
Arguably college basketball’s best point guard last year at Marquette, southpaw pick-and-roll maestro Tyler Kolek (40) has been linked to destinations like Phoenix, Milwaukee, and New York in the second half of the first-round.
With his off court issues now resolved, Terrence Shannon (41) has seen his draft stock rebound some within the last week or so. He was one of the most prolific scorers in college basketball this year at Illinois, but still has a perceived wide draft range from about 15 into the second round.
Most have Houston point guard Jamal Shead (42) projected as a second round pick, but if I’m in the late first round I give him a long look because of his toughness, intelligence, defense, and understanding of how to run a team.
Five fits I’d love to see
Donovan Clingan to the Grizzlies (43)
They were 27-55 last year and yet believe they could be on the verge of contending once they get Ja Morant back in the lineup surrounded by Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, and others. After moving Steven Adams, Clingan would be the perfect defensive anchor.
Zaccharie Risacher to the Spurs (44)
His shooting and defense would be great fits alongside his countryman, Victor Wembanyama, who looks every bit the generational prospect anticipated at this time last year.
Isaiah Collier to the Wizards (45)
They don’t have a young point guard to develop on their roster, and realistically aren’t going to be in contention next season. Collier could get the benefit of those reps to see if he’s capable of growing into an NBA starting point guard.
Filipowski to the 76ers (46)
He’s got enough size to play center, and enough skill to play the four, which means he could both back-up Joel Embiid or play alongside him and space the floor. That’s a good fit for all parties.
Bub Carrington to the Magic (47)
The Magic have invested a lot of draft picks in young guards in recent years and Jalen Suggs looks like the only one who could be a long-term fixture in Orlando. Carrington, a Pitt Panther, could take some time, but he’s a high upside guard who could evolve into a nice counterpart.
Ryan Dunn to the Knicks (48)
Arguably the best defender in college basketball deserves to play on the Knicks for Tom Thibodeau. The only problem is that he went to Virginia and NOT Villanova …
Two teams that have everyone guessing
The Phoenix Suns (49) have got everyone guessing about whether they’ll keep the pick, move it for a rotation player, or try to convert it into multiple draft assets. They’ve been linked to Kolek, but that’s low-hanging fruit since his agent, Mark Bartelstein, is the father of Suns executive Josh Bartelstein.
Matas Buzelis is being commonly mocked to the Detroit Pistons (50) right now, but the reality is that we have no idea what Trajan Langdon will do because this is the first year he’s had final say after coming from Atlanta. We also don’t know how he values the young players he inherited on Detroit’s roster and how that will impact his moves.
Three GMs hungry to hit a home run
With the war chest of assets that Oklahoma City’s Sam Presti (51) has acquired in the coming years, he can afford to take some big swings. I expect he’ll do just that with players like Williams, Holland, Topic, and Salaun all being possibilities.
Portland Trail Blazers assistant general manager Mike Schmitz (52) is believed to have significant say in their high draft picks. They’ve swung big on Shaedon Sharpe and Scoot Henderson in recent drafts and are reportedly no less willing to bet on upside this year.
Utah’s Danny Ainge (53) is one of the league’s most notorious deal makers. Ainge tore everything down in Utah upon his arrival, collecting numerous picks, but has not yet struck gold with any of those picks since then.
Four thoughts on Bronny James and the Lakers
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Might anyone (54) but the Lakers take him? Phoenix is the only other team he worked out for, but the Suns really need to use their second-round picks to find immediate rotation players around Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. As for the potential of another franchise taking a risk on upsetting Klutch, that just doesn’t seem worthwhile given the scope of their influence.
Where will Bronny get picked (55)? The Lakers pick 55th overall — you see what I did there? LeBron James is a free agent on the brink of a reported three-year, $160 million deal. We’d say a late second-round pick is at all it takes to lock up the NBA’s all-time leading scorer for the rest of his career.
What are the realistic expectations? While I don’t believe he would be drafted at this point if he weren’t Lebron’s son, I actually do think there’s a path to him be a serviceable NBA player (56) down the road if the shooting projects like we expected in high school. Bronny is strong, athletic, he defends and has always moved the ball.
Who fits the Lakers better at No. 17? Plug-and-play options (57) like da Silva and Scheierman or bigs like Ware and maybe even Edey.
Who goes first in next year’s draft?
Duke freshman Cooper Flagg will begin his college career as the strong favorite to be the number one overall pick in 2025 (58), but Rutgers freshman Ace Bailey is a bigger contender than most realize with still a year to keep emerging at the same rapid rate we’ve seen in the last eight months.
