One thing that really sticks out is Badosa’s hold percentage: it’s up to 75.3% on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. That’s significantly higher than Navarro’s 68.3% in that same span. And if Badosa is working a little less during her service games, that will allow her to focus a ton of energy on breaking Navarro’s serve. The American is a fantastic player, but she can occasionally struggle to get through her service games. I also didn’t think she served all that well against Coco Gauff last round, especially in the second and third sets. Gauff just didn’t find the court nearly enough to make her pay for it; Last year’s US Open champ had 60 unforced errors. Badosa won’t miss as many shots, so Navarro will have to do a lot more to win this match.
Speaking of the Gauff match, I also think Navarro is in a real letdown spot here. The 23-year-old could be drained after having faced the crowd favorite. Navarro does a really good job of keeping herself calm and focused, but she had to have been bottling some things up in that match. She was an American player competing at the US Open, but all the support for Gauff made Navarro seem like a villain.
All in all, I’d like to say that I think Navarro will win this match. But this is a pretty tough spot, and it feels like the oddsmakers aren’t pricing Badosa correctly. She’s looking a lot like the elite player she was in 2021. Badosa won a title in Washington D.C. a couple of weeks ago and has now won 14 of her last 16 matches.
Pick: Badosa ML (-125)
