Pegula’s level right now is somehow being underappreciated. The American is never mentioned with players like Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek, Elena Rybakina and Gauff. However, Pegula might be the best player in women’s tennis that hasn’t won a major. And she comes into this match playing the best tennis of her life, as she has won 15 of her last 16 matches. Along the way, Pegula has won a 1000-level event in Toronto, knocked off the world No. 1 in New York and beat a red-hot Karolina Muchova in the semis. She’s very much knocking on the door of the top tier in women’s tennis, if she isn’t there already.
I know that Sabalenka beat Pegula when the two met in the Cincinnati final, but that was a very competitive match. Sabalenka won 6-3, 7-5 in that one, and Pegula was very likely fatigued. She had just won the title in Canada a week before and then had to play two three-set matches in a row before taking on the Belarusian. This time around, look for Pegula to have more energy, especially with the adrenaline of the crowd helping her out.
It’s also very hard to beat a player twice in such a short period of time. And Pegula does have the ability to make things difficult on Sabalenka. Pegula is obviously capable of hitting hard, flat strokes deep in the court, and she uses that to push her opponents around and then create opportunities for winners. But she’s also capable of playing high-level defense and giving her opponents the opportunity to lose matches. So, if she senses any negativity coming from the Sabalenka side, she can lock things down and hope the Belarusian makes mistakes.
It’s also worth noting that Pegula seems to enjoy playing with no expectations. She played lights-out tennis as a big underdog against Swiatek, but she struggled early on as a favorite against Muchova. Well, I’m expecting her to come out with less nerves and more of a house-money attitude here. All of that should result in her avoiding a straight-set loss. It could also be enough for her to lift her maiden Grand Slam title.
Pick: Pegula +1.5 Sets (-118)
