Parity has made the NBA season much less predictable over the years, but there are still certain truths we hold to be self-evident: LeBron James will make headlines. Nikola Jokic will be understatedly great. Anthony Edwards will bust out some wisecracks while flashing that multi-million dollar smile.
That’s why those of us who watch the league year in and year out look for joy in the margins.
Every season there is a handful of players who make a noticeable leap, forcing even the most casual fan to stand up and take notice. It’s not easy in an NBA landscape where specialization is key and only a few players on each team are expected to do the vast majority of offensive creation, but we’ve identified one player on each team that could push through the wall.
Here is every team’s top breakout candidate for the 2024-25 NBA season. (All stats from 2023-24 season)
Don’t expect the third-year guard to explode for 20 points per game in his first season with the Hawks, but Daniels will certainly compete for the heavy minutes vacated by Dejounte Murray. He’s an absolutely tenacious defender, able to guard multiple positions due to his 6-foot-8 frame, and he put up an impressive 2.3 steals per 36 minutes last season in New Orleans. The lack of 3-point accuracy — 31% in each of his first two NBA seasons — could ultimately limit his minutes particularly down the stretch, but the 38% mark he put up during the preseason on a respectable five attempts per game is a hopeful beacon for the 21-year-old.
It’s hard to find a breakout candidate on a championship team so set in its rotation, but Hauser is going to have every opportunity to step up his production due to the attention showered upon his All-Star teammates. His 3-point accuracy is absolutely off the charts, landing in the 97th percentile in points per jump shot, per Synergy Sports, but it’s his ability to shoot off the dribble when run off the line that could lead to a bump in scoring for the 26-year-old. Hauser showed some sizzle off the bounce in a limited capacity last season, and it should only improve with reps and confidence.
The 20-year-old Clowney was a per-36 minute monster last season, putting up 13 points, eight rebounds and over 1.5 blocks, but he’s going to need to prove that he can keep that up while getting more run this season. In four preseason games, the 20-year-old averaged nine points and 4.5 rebounds, and he also displayed some playmaking ability that could help separate him from Brooklyn’s other bigs.
Given where the Nets’ season could end up — with veterans like Cam Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith possibly headed out the door — Clowney should get every opportunity to blossom in his second year.
Due to LaMelo Ball’s injury, Mann was inserted into the starting lineup after being traded to Charlotte last season, where he averaged 12 points, five assists and nearly two steals over 28 games. He’ll start this season as a backup, but Ball’s injury history suggests that Mann could get some more run as a starter at some point during the season. He was out there looking like and And-1 Mixtape legend during the preseason, averaging 16 points in fewer than 20 minutes per game while knocking down a blistering 47% of his 3-pointers.
Well, we picked Patrick Williams for the Bulls last season, missing the boat on Most Improved Player runner-up Coby White, and while it’s tempting to pick Williams again, he had a rough preseason (7.3 points per game on 27% 3-point shooting) and it’s hard to see him getting a huge boost in production next to Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic, even with DeMar DeRozan’s departure. So instead we’ll take a flier on second-year wing Phillips, who put up 10.5 points and 3.8 rebounds per game during the preseason, most importantly hitting 42% of his 3-pointers after making just 32% as a rookie. If that improvement is real, the shooting combined with his athleticism could eventually earn him rotation minutes. Hey, it’s a long shot but Chicago doesn’t have a lot of candidates here.
The Cavs have a pretty set rotation without much room for breakouts, but new head coach Kenny Atkinson has already given Wade a major vote of confidence heading into his sixth NBA season. The key with the 6-foot-9 forward is staying healthy, but when he’s on the court he’s a valuable floor spacer with defensive size and versatility. The problem is, according to Atkinson, that he just doesn’t shoot enough.
“Man, too much pump-faking tonight,” Atkinson said after Cleveland’s preseason loss to the Indiana Pacers. “Let that thing ride, let that thing go. I just think he doesn’t know how good a shooter he is.”
It sounds like he will have the greenest of green lights, and with Max Strus set to miss the first month and a half of the season, Wade should be relied upon to hoist from beyond the arc early and often. He averaged 5.5 attempts from deep during the preseason, compared to 3.7 last year, so the room is there for a (mini) breakout season.
Since Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington already had their breakout moments last postseason, the most likely candidate remaining is Hardy, a 6-foot-4 walking bucket who’s never met a shot, or a moment, that he didn’t love. The efficiency last season was … not great … but Hardy shot an impressive 41% on nearly seven 3-point attempts per game during the preseason, making several difficult pull-ups along the way.
Hardy should get backup minutes behind Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, and could see a significant bump in production if that 3-point shooting stays in the high-30s.
Braun shot 38% from 3-point range last season, but he took only two attempts per game. That volume will have to increase significantly now that he’s occupying the starting shooting guard role vacated by Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s departure, and the question is whether he can maintain the accuracy. Even if he doesn’t, Braun’s fearless athleticism makes him a serious threat in transition, where he did most of his damage last season.
Braun will have every opportunity to have a breakout season, and Denver will need him to thrive if they’re going to get back to the NBA Finals.
Well, if Ivey is going to replicate his ridiculous 61/53/86 splits from his five preseason games, he’s going to be in the running for Most Improved Player (and maybe MVP?). Lack of efficiency was the dynamic guard’s biggest drawback last season, so to see an improvement that astronomic, even in such a small sample, has to be encouraging. Ivey should also benefit from the addition of Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley and Tim Hardaway Jr., who give Detroit some genuine spacing that should clear extra pathways to the rim.
Life has to be pretty frustrating for Moody (besides all those millions of dollars, of course), since he continually earns praise from Steve Kerr at every turn and yet can’t seem to carve his way into a consistent rotation spot. It’s been more of the same this preseason with Moody performing brilliantly, averaging 15.5 points in 20 minutes per game on 46/39/95 splits. Once again the Warriors are deep with established talent so it may be a fool-me-twice situation, but it seems like this is the year that Moody will finally break through.
The Rockets are deep, so it’s going to be hard for any one player to produce enough to merit a “breakout” tag. But if anyone’s capable it’s Thompson, who somehow looks even more athletically superior in his 6-foot-7 frame than he did as a rookie. When this guy get out in transition — either with the ball or without it — he’s an absolute steamroller with his sights set directly on embarrassing the closest defender and his family with a poster dunk.
Thompson’s also an excellent cutter in the halfcourt, and perhaps this season we’ll see a bit more of the playmaking that made him such an intriguing prospect. If he can somehow find any level of consistency on his jumper (hey, 2 for 5 from 2-point range this preseason!), that’s just icing on the cake.
Mathurin carries legit Sixth Man of the Year vibes into the season, as the third-year wing’s athleticism and shot-making are the perfect weapons for Rick Carlisle’s high-octane offense. He was limited to 59 games last season, and if healthy he should be able to improve upon his 14.5 points per game, particularly if he increases his 3-point volume (37% on 3.6 attempts per game last season). Mathurin looked good again this preseason, putting up 13 points in 22 minutes per game on efficient 47/42/85 shooting splits. We could have a third-year breakout on our hands here.
With Paul George in Philadelphia and Kawhi Leonard out of the lineup for who knows how long, the Clippers are going to need some scoring from the wing. Enter Coffey, who has quietly been one of the team’s most reliable players over the past few seasons, hitting the 38% mark or higher from 3-point range three times in his career. Last season he put up 11 points per 36 minutes on impressive 47/38/86 shooting splits, and the 27-year-old could realistically be slotted in for 28-30 minutes per game for Ty Lue this season depending on how things shake out.
If the Lakers are going to be legitimate contenders this season, Hachimura is going to be a big part of it (just like he was on opening night). Long tasked with being more aggressive, he’ll have the green light to fire away from 3-point range under new coach JJ Redick. Last season Hachimura was in the 84th percentile in spot-up situations, per Synergy Sports, and was anomalously efficient on post-ups due to his wide array of fadeaway jumpers complemented by his bully-ball physicality.
As you can see, he has the ability to make something out of nothing — a rare quality in the NBA — which should lead to an easier life for LeBron James and Anthony Davis, and possibly a breakout year for Hachimura.
Pippen was one of Memphis’ silly season success stories last spring, averaging 13 points, five assists and nearly two steals in his 21 games on 49/42/75 shooting splits. The third-year guard should get a crack at backup point guard minutes when Ja Morant rests, a big promotion for a guy who was on a two-way deal last season. Turnovers have been the biggest issue for Pippen so far, and if he can cut those down he could play a significant role for a Grizzlies team that should be right back in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.
It’s almost impossible to pick a breakout candidate on such a veteran team (LOVE Kel’el Ware, but a rookie can’t have a breakout season), so Jaquez is the guy here even though he probably won’t put up eye-popping numbers. Drawing almost universal raves in his first season, Jaquez just knows how to play basketball and deftly picks his spots with the interior offense he was so successful with at UCLA.
The real game-changer will be if Jaquez starts making (and taking) more 3s, but his two total attempts in three preseason games doesn’t bode well in that area. Even so, Jaquez should be able to improve on his rookie numbers while getting some extra run if and when Jimmy Butler is on the injured list.
Trent is an absolute knock-down 3-point shooter who is never afraid to let it fly, and that’s exactly what Milwaukee needs around Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard. He should get his fair share of wide-open 3-point looks, on which he shot 51% last season with the Raptors, according to NBA.com. He’s not going to create his own shot very often, but he’s adept at getting defenders on their heels in transition before pulling up for a quick 3.
The Bucks need production outside of their Big Two, and Trent appears to be in perfect position to capitalize on the freedom the stars provide.
Already an All-NBA defender, McDaniels still has plenty of room to grow offensively after taking a step back in that area last season. The Wolves will have a different look with Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo replacing Karl-Anthony Towns, and McDaniels could take that opportunity to get more involved on the offensive end. The first step is getting back to the 40% 3-point shooting he displayed in 2022-23 (that fell to 34% last season), but he can also take advantage of his athleticism more often to get to the rim, where he finished in the 82nd percentile last season, per Synergy Sports.
If he bumps his scoring up into the 15 point per game range, that will make a huge difference for Minnesota.
Staying healthy will be the priority for Murphy this season, because when he’s on the floor he’s absolutely electric. Not only is he one of the most prolific 3-point shooters in the league (38% on almost eight attempts per game last season), but he also gladly pulls the trigger from essentially anywhere inside halfcourt. Just take a look at this shot chart.
When you mix in the vertical leap and athleticism that he displayed in February’s Dunk Contest, you have a 24-year-old ready to reach the next level.
The man they call Deuce technically “arrived” last season, but he should be able to take that to another level as the Knicks’ bona fide backup point guard in 2024-25. The most staggering improvement last year came from 3-point range, where he went from 28% over his first two NBA seasons to a gleaming 41% on almost four attempts per game. It’s hard to read too much into preseason performance, but the fact that McBride more than doubled that to nine 3-point attempts per game — and made 37% of them — suggests a potential breakout season for the fourth-year guard, possibly with some Sixth Man of the Year consideration. The Knicks did not get off to a good start to their season on Tuesday night in Boston, but McBride did with 22 points off the bench.
The predictable Jalen Williams breakout took place last season and, while he certainly could go to yet another level this year, why don’t we focus on Wallace, who is poised to improve upon an impressive rookie campaign for OKC. He made 42% of his 3-pointers last season, which should give him the confidence to fire away a bit more than the three attempts he took per game. Even with a potential volume increase, Wallace’s stats aren’t going to blow you away. His impact comes more with his basketball IQ and defensive tenacity, which will be under the spotlight on one of the league’s best teams.
Magic fans have been hesitant to get too excited about Isaac given the availability issues over his seven NBA seasons, three of which he missed almost entirely. But last season’s 58-game display showed that the 6-10 Isaac is a genuine Defensive Player of the Year candidate if he gets enough time on the floor.
Does Orlando feel comfortable bumping him up from 16 minutes per game to, say, 20? If so, Isaac will make a tremendous impact and could see significant statistical improvements. He’s no offensive dynamo, but he shot 38% on two 3-point attempts per game last season, and when he gets around the rim his athleticism and length speak for themselves.
The 76ers have as many known commodities as any NBA team this season, so it’s hard to pick a true breakout candidate. Yabusele is probably as close as it gets, as he could make his way into the rotation as a backup four or five. The 6-foot-8 Frenchman hasn’t played in the NBA since 2019, but he got back on the radar after a standout Olympic performance that included a poster dunk on LeBron James.
In six preseason games, the big man averaged nine points and five rebounds on 57/44/89 shooting splits, and while he’s not likely going to win a scoring title any time soon, he should be a valuable piece to a Philly team hoping to make a lengthy postseason run.
We’re going to need to tweak the definition of “breakout” a bit when it comes to the Suns because they have a set veteran rotation that shouldn’t provide many surprises. Jones fits the bill as a breakout if you consider that his NBA role has mostly been that of a phenomenal backup and not many likely tuned in to see him has a starter last season with the Wizards. This season he’s going to have the spotlight as a starting point guard on a team with championship hopes, and he’ll get to put his talents on full display.
Known as the assist-to-turnover king, Jones will dish out plenty of dimes to Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal while taking advantage of wide-open 3-point looks, on which he shot 46% last season. He got off to a great start in the preseason, dishing out 21 assists compared to five turnovers while going 8 for 13 from 3-point range.
Starting the season with a shoulder injury isn’t ideal, but assuming Sharpe can come back healthy after only missing a handful of games, he’s the top breakout candidate on he rebuilding Blazers — particularly if they eventually trade away Jerami Grant to open up even more opportunity. Sharpe’s efficiency was brutal in an injury-plagued 2022-23 campaign, but his 82% from the free throw line suggests his 3-point accuracy will soon take an upturn. The athleticism is obviously off the charts and he was excellent in spot-up situations last year, which bodes well for his ability to share he court with primary ball-handlers Scoot Henderson and Anfernee Simons. Sharpe could easily become a 20 point per game scorer this season.
On a roster full of established talent, Ellis seems like the most likely candidate to become a more familiar name around national NBA circles. He has the inside track as the starting shooting guard in a lineup filled with scoring talent, so Ellis’ offensive numbers likely won’t jump off the page, but his defensive contributions (chasing Steph Curry all around the court comes to mind), basketball IQ and timely shooting make him a key cog in Sacramento’s attack.
He shot 42% from 3-point range last season on nearly three attempts per game, and that volume could go up with the extra attention DeMar DeRozan will command in addition to De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis. Ellis is also a sneaky playmaker, landing in the 86th percentile in efficiency including assists last season, per Synergy Sports.
After a failed experiment as the starting point guard to begin last season, Sochan will enter 2024-25 with a legitimate floor general in Chris Paul and a bona fide superstar in Victor Wembanyama. That will free up Sochan to do all the cool, little things that make him such a unique and interesting player. He’s already reaped some of the benefits, averaging 14 points, seven rebounds, two assists and a steal this preseason while shooting a ridiculous 66% from the field. You need not be a basketball savant to pinpoint a trend in Sochan’s made field goals from those four games.
With Paul, Wembanyama and Devin Vassell doing the heavy lifting, Sochan can focus on the things he does best — transition, cutting and crashing the offensive glass — which should result in most of his buckets coming at the rim.
After a solid rookie season, Dick should be ready to assume a more prominent role as the Raptors’ starting shooting guard, and if the preseason is any indication, it will lead to increased production. The 20-year-old averaged 15 points and four rebounds in five games, with more than half of his field goals coming inside the 3-point line. He showcased a buttery two-dribble pull-up going to his left that will come in handy when defenders run him off the line.
Toronto has some high-usage offensive pieces in Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, but don’t be surprised if Dick puts up strong numbers as a sophomore.
While the true point guard playmaking still has a ways to go, George showed during the preseason that he can flat-out score the basketball, averaging 14 points in 21 minutes on 49/45/88 shooting splits — a far cry from the abysmal 39% field goals and 33% 3-pointers he logged last season. Finishing at the rim was a serious problem for George as a rookie, and he showed some improvement in that area over his five preseason games.
The 20-year-old will have the proverbial keys to Utah’s car, and he seems poised to take a step forward in his development.
We picked Deni Avdija as last year’s breakout candidate, and he certainly lived up to the bill — so of course the Wizards rewarded him by trading him to the Blazers! Next on the list for Washington is Coulibaly, the projectable No. 7 overall draft selection who got more run as a rookie than most were expecting. He’s not going to be a 20-point scorer any time soon, but Coulibaly has already shown that he can impact the game with his defense and athleticism. Case in point, he averaged 1.7 steals per game during the preseason, using his length and anticipation to blow up even the simplest of actions (ignore the finish attempt on the other end, please … Wiz gonna Wiz).
Coulibaly is far from a finished product, but if he continues his ahead-of-schedule development, he could be a major contributor this year in the nation’s capital.
