However, there are two things that are worth pointing out. The first is that Alcaraz isn’t done just yet. The Spaniard is a -385 favorite to beat Rublev in their match. If he wins that one and beats Zverev, he still has a shot at making the semifinals. And for what it’s worth, Zverev might not play Alcaraz with the same desperation that the Spaniard will have. A win over Ruud would pretty much book the German’s spot in the semifinals, and Zverev is a -435 favorite to win that match. That said, Alcaraz isn’t dead yet. So, jumping on his +700 odds isn’t a bad idea considering Alcaraz was second on the oddsboard to start the tournament.
The second thing is that Fritz is looking like a threat in Turin. The American beat Medvedev rather easily in their Sunday encounter, and while he is a pretty sizable underdog against Sinner, he still can make the semifinals by beating de Minaur. The Australian does have a 4-3 record against the American in seven career meetings, but Fritz is arguably a better fast-court player. There’s no better example of that than their meeting in Eastbourne two years ago, when Fritz earned a 6-1, 6-7 (5), 6-3 win on grass. Indoor hard courts could favor him even more. Fritz absolutely loves playing in this event: we saw it in his first appearance two years ago, and he picked back up where he left off on Sunday.
Overall, there are still plenty of ways to get involved in betting this tournament. Backing Sinner at -135 is probably my favorite, but I do expect Zverev to win his group. So, +380 odds aren’t terrible for the German. But there are plenty of other ways to go, and it’s hard to blame anybody for betting on any of these players. That’s the beauty of an event that features the best of the best.
