AFC, NFC Championship preview; Jaguars fire GM in stunning reversal; NBA All-Star starters named

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🏈 Good morning to all, but especially to …

THE BILLS, CHIEFS, COMMANDERS AND EAGLES

It’s (nearly) here, and it’s beautiful. Championship Sunday is just two days away, and both games are oozing with storylines.

Let’s start in the AFC. Josh Allen and the Bills get yet another chance at revenge in their fourth postseason meeting with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the last five seasons. Yes, these two have quite the playoff history, and Buffalo has quite the playoff history with heartbreak in general.

But this is a great chance to change that, Doug Clawson writes. The Bills can (and should) run. The Bills can pass. The Bills can play defense. The Bills are the only team to beat the Chiefs’ starters this season. Allen has been superb. And yet … Tyler Sullivan just can’t bring himself to take Buffalo.

• Dajani: “Lost in the madness of the Bills’ divisional round win over the Ravens was their continued struggles on third downs, allowing Baltimore to convert seven of its 10 opportunities. With cornerback Christian Benford in concussion protocol and safety Taylor Rapp nursing a hip injury that knocked him out of last week’s playoff game, the inability to get off the field on the key down isn’t expected to get any better. That gives Mahomes a tremendous advantage, and it doesn’t hurt that his go-to option in Travis Kelce has heated up now that the playoffs have arrived. Projected score: Chiefs 30, Bills 27 | The pick: Chiefs -1.5“

I’m worried about Buffalo’s defense, too. The Ravens had 416 yards. The only thing that stopped the Ravens, mostly, was themselves: Lamar Jackson‘s awful interception, Jackson’s fumble on a play disrupted on a bad snap, a Mark Andrews fumble and, of course, Andrews’ drop on a potential two-point conversion. Obviously give Buffalo tons of credit for taking advantage, but the Chiefs just don’t beat themselves in the postseason.

In the NFC, Jared Dubin broke down which team has the edge at every position, and while Philadelphia rightfully gets the nod in most categories, Washington’s the pick in the most important one.

• Dubin: “The way they’re playing right now, it is hard not to give the advantage to Jayden Daniels over Jalen Hurts, despite the fact that the former is a rookie and the latter was once an MVP candidate who led his team to a conference championship. Daniels is playing at as high a level as any rookie quarterback ever has, and he is essentially the foundation of Washington’s entire offense. The ship is built around his skill set in a way that it just isn’t for Hurts in Philadelphia, where right now offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is essentially asking him to just not make mistakes.”

Add in that Hurts is hurting, and I think this is the right call.

Here’s everything else to know for what should be an excellent Championship Sunday:

👍 Honorable mentions

😬 And not such a good morning for …

THE TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

There have been plenty of wild coaching searches, but this one might top them all. One day after pulling himself out of the Jaguars‘ coaching search and agreeing to a lucrative deal to remain the Buccaneers‘ offensive coordinator, Liam Coen took the Jacksonville job in a dramatic 180. Here’s how it all went down:

• After Coen pulled himself out of consideration for the Jaguars’ gig and agreed to the deal with Tampa Bay on Wednesday, the Jaguars fired GM Trent Baalke.
• Jacksonville had seemingly committed to Baalke a few weeks ago when it fired coach Doug Pederson, but owner Shad Khan reversed course. Missing out on Coen, it appears, was the straw that broke the camel’s back.
• But after Baalke’s firing Wednesday, Tampa Bay’s attempts to reach Coen to finalize the deal to keep him as offensive coordinator went unanswered, CBS Sports NFL insider Jonathan Jones reports. Coen only responded to the Buccaneers late Thursday evening, after he reopened talks with the Jaguars.

Coen, 39, was one of the breakout offensive coaches of 2024, leading a Buccaneers offense that ranked third in yards and fourth in scoring. Baker Mayfield had a career year, and Coen helped rejuvenate Tampa Bay’s Bucky Irving-led rushing attack. The offensive line was among the best in the league, and Mike Evans reached 1,000 receiving yards for the 11th straight season.

I said yesterday, when it appeared that the Jaguars would miss out on Coen, that it was a big miss. Now, it could be a big hit. For all of his flaws, Baalke leaves behind a solid nucleus, Pete Prisco writes, and that starts with Trevor Lawrence, who I truly believe has better days ahead of him if he finds the right coach. Coen very well may be that guy.

There are concerns — he’s a first-time head coach, he just changed his mind in whiplash fashion, and this is his fifth job in five years — but he showed really impressive coordinating chops in Tampa Bay and with the Rams and Kentucky before that.

Maybe it doesn’t work out in Jacksonville, which still needs a GM, too. But Coen’s departure is undoubtedly a big loss for the Buccaneers, and it came in frustrating, shocking fashion.

😔 Not so honorable mentions

🏀 NBA All-Star starters announced: LeBron James extends record, two major snubs

LeBron James extended his own record by being named to his 21st NBA All-Star Game during Thursday’s All-Star starters announcement. Here are the five “starters” from the West …

• Stephen Curry
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
• Kevin Durant
• LeBron James
• Nikola Jokic

… and here are the five “starters” from the East …

• Jalen Brunson
• Donovan Mitchell
• Karl-Anthony Towns
• Jayson Tatum
• Giannis Antetokounmpo

We put starters in quotation marks because the format of the All-Star Game has changed once again. Here’s a full explainer.

I believe if you’re going to complain about selections, you’d better have arguments for who deserved the spots instead. Brad Botkin dutifully produced two snubs, including …

• Botkin: “Victor Wembanyama — On track to become the 10th player in history to block four shots per game, and just the fifth to do so while also averaging at least 20 points and 10 rebounds, Wembanyama is the runaway DPOY favorite as he has already established himself as the league’s most impactful defensive player by an appreciable margin. … Per 36 minutes, Wembanyama logs almost identical points and assists to Durant while far clearing him in rebounds, and is also scoring and rebounding at a greater clip than LeBron.”

Wembanyama also went off in a homecoming game in France, exacerbating the snub.

Here’s more All-Star news:

🏀 What’s next for Bradley Beal?

The Suns acquired three first-round picks for a reason. They’re going to try to make a deal, whether it’s for Jimmy Butler or not.

Either way, Bradley Beal is going to be leaving Phoenix if a blockbuster occurs, as Sam Quinn smartly explained. The Bucks appeared to be a potential landing spot, but Milwaukee isn’t interested. 

So, with that option seemingly off the table, who could take on Beal — who has a big contract and no-trade clause –and get one of those picks as a “thank you?” Sam has updated Beal landing spots, but they may not be all that appealing …

• Quinn: “The Bulls will likely come up quite a bit in the coming weeks. They’re already in purgatory, and they’re already paying a guard they may not want a lot of money in this period. Let’s say someone wants to give them assets for Zach LaVine, and then the Suns will give them something to stick Beal into his salary slot. … These are unlikely to be the sort of teams that appeal to Beal, but such teams, at least for now, don’t seem all that interested. If he’d prefer to continue playing a suboptimal role in Phoenix, well, that’s his contractual right, and if teams aren’t interested in taking the sort of flier on Beal that they could have taken on LaVine a few months ago, that’s their right as well.”

📺 What we’re watching this weekend

Friday

🏀 No. 5 LSU at No. 2 South Carolina (W), 5 p.m. on ESPN
🏀 Villanova at No. 10 Marquette (M), 7 p.m. on FS1
🏀 Pelicans at Grizzlies, 8 p.m. on NBA TV
🏀 No. 21 Michigan at No. 11 Purdue (M), 8 p.m. on Fox

Saturday

🎾 Australian Open women’s final: Madison Keys vs. Aryna Sabalenka, 3:30 a.m. on ESPN
🏀 NBA Paris Games: Pacers at Spurs, noon on ESPN
🏀 No. 21 Michigan State at No. 24 Michigan (W), noon on BTN
🏀 No. 8 Michigan State at Rutgers (M), 1:30 p.m. on CBS
🏀 No. 9 Kentucky at Vanderbilt (M), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN
🏀 No. 13 Texas A&M at Texas (M), 2:30 p.m. on ESPN2
🏀 Nuggets at Timberwolves, 3 p.m. on ABC
🏀 No. 2 Duke at Wake Forest (M), 4:30 p.m. on ESPN
🏀 Celtics at Mavericks, 5:30 p.m. on ABC
🏀 No. 16 Ole Miss at No. 22 Missouri (M), 6 p.m. on SEC Network
🏀 No. 7 Houston at No. 12 Kansas (M), 6:30 p.m. on ESPN
🏀 Lakers at Warriors, 8:30 p.m. on ABC
🏀 No. 6 Tennessee at No. 1 Auburn (M), 8:30 p.m. on ESPN

Sunday

🎾 Australian Open men’s final: Jannik Sinner vs. Alexander Zverev, 3:30 a.m. on ESPN
🏀 No. 1 UCLA at No. 8 Maryland (W), 2 p.m. on NBC
🏈 NFC Championship: Commanders at Eagles, 3 p.m. on Fox
🏀 No. 25 Baylor at No. 9 TCU (W), 3 p.m. on ESPN2
🏈 AFC Championship: Bills at Chiefs, 6:30 p.m. on CBS/Paramount+