Sinner has a higher hold percentage than Fritz, who has a game that is very much built around a big serve. He is also a far better returner. When you combine all of that with Sinner’s advantages from both the forehand and backhand wings, as well has his superior movement, point construction and net play, it’s hard to see a path for a Fritz keeping this close.
Sinner beat Fritz in Indian Wells last year, which came before he really kicked things into gear and became one of the best players on the planet. Now, Sinner is 38-2 on hard courts in 2024, and the only thing that can really get in his own way is his health. The story of an American finally breaking through at a major—on home soil—is enticing, but the best bet (besides this one) is to keep your emotions out of it.
Pick: Sinner -1.5 Sets (-149)
