The Oklahoma City Thunder have spent most of the season leading the league in defensive rating, and they will try to showcase that defense again when they face the Indiana Pacers during the Saturday NBA schedule. They notched a 120-114 win over Indiana on the road in December, holding Pacers star Tyrese Haliburton to just four points. His over/under for points scored on Saturday night is 17.5 in the latest NBA prop odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. Haliburton has finished with at least 10 assists in 12 of his last 13 games, but his assists total is 9.5 on the NBA odds board. Is that one of the NBA player props to target with NBA prop bets on Saturday night?
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons. Then, one of the Data Scientists behind the model, Stephen Oh (@StephenOhCBS), analyzed the sim results and broke down the supporting evidence to reveal which player props have the best value.
Ja Morant Over 29.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120)
The Grizzlies surprisingly fired head coach Taylor Jenkins with nine games remaining in the regular season, with assistant Tuomas Iisalo taking over as the interim coach. Morant has missed the last six games due to a left hamstring strain, but he has a good chance to return for this critical game against the Lakers. The Grizzlies are tied with the Lakers for fourth place in the Western Conference standings, and the model expects Morant to come up clutch for Memphis on Saturday night. FanDuel currently offers the best odds at -110.
“The model projects 34.5 which is just above his 33.8 average and he has gone over 29.5 in 31 of 43 games (72.1%),” Oh told SportsLine.
Josh Giddey Under 23.5 points (-140)
Giddey sank a 46.5-footer to shock the Lakers at the buzzer on Thursday, capping off a stunning rally in the final 12 seconds of the game. The 22-year-old has 220 points, 96 rebounds and 100 assists over his last 10 games, becoming one of eight players in league history to post those numbers. However, this has led to inflated prop totals, and the model has him finishing with 21.2 points on Saturday. BetMGM is the only sportsbook still offering 23.5 points for Giddey.
“A guy, even as hot as Giddey, has to have a stinker at some point and there has to be some sort of emotional letdown after their Lakers win,” Oh said.
Jordan Poole Over 15.5 points (-120)
Poole has finished with at least 18 points in five straight games, and the model expects that trend to continue on Saturday. Oh notes that Washington is trying to make Poole an attractive trade option for a good team, which is one reason why the model has him finishing with 18.5 points against Brooklyn. He has gone over 15.5 points in 23 of 30 home games, and he has cashed this prop in 71.4% of his games overall this season. BetMGM has the best line at -120.
“As long as WAS sticks (and stinks) with this ‘winning’ formula, Poole should score at least 16 even if it takes 18 FGAs to get there,” Oh said.
Luka Doncic Under 30.5 points (-115)
Doncic has scored at least 31 points in four of his last five games, but he has been creeping over the total. He has not scored more than 34 points in a game since March 13, and he finished with 25 points against Chicago on Thursday. Additionally, LeBron James missed five straight games prior to returning last weekend, giving Doncic more scoring opportunities during those outings. The model has Doncic finishing with 28.6 points against the Grizzlies on Saturday, pointing to value on the Under.
Luguentz Dort Over 9.5 points (-110)
Dort has scored in double figures in four of his last six games, and he has not finished with less than seven points in a game since March 9. He had 13 points against the Kings on Tuesday before scoring nine points against Memphis on Thursday. The 25-year-old is averaging 9.9 points per game this season, and he has gone over his points market in 15 of 25 home games against a team with a winning record. He is scoring 12.6 points in the model’s projections, which allows some cushion at his current prop total. DraftKings Sportsbook has the best line on the Over.
Want more NBA picks for tonight?
You’ve seen the model’s NBA prop picks for some of the most popular props on Saturday. Now, get NBA projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
