The Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets will meet on Wednesday for the second time in a week, but the Lakers hope to have a key piece back this time. The Lakers were without Luka Doncic (ankle) and LeBron James (groin) in a 131-126 loss to Denver on the road on March 14, but Doncic is probable for Wednesday in Los Angeles. James remains out. Nikola Jokic (ankle/elbow) and Jamal Murray (ankle) are questionable, while Aaron Gordon (calf/ankle) is probable for the Nuggets. The Nuggets hold a one-game lead over the Lakers for the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference. Denver is 44-25 overall, including 21-14 on the road and Los Angeles is 42-25 overall, including 27-7 at home.
Tipoff on ESPN is set for 10 p.m. ET from Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, Calif. The Nuggets are 2-point favorites in the latest Lakers vs. Nuggets odds from the SportsLine Consensus, while the over/under for points scored is 232.5. The Nuggets are -131 (risk $131 to win $100) money-line favorites, while the Lakers are +110 underdogs.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in betting profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past six-plus seasons.
Here are the model’s NBA best bets for Nuggets vs. Lakers on Wednesday:
Nuggets (-2 at DraftKings)
The Nuggets have won two of three meetings against the Lakers this season and five of six regular-season matchups over the last two years. Denver also defeated Los Angeles in five games in the first round of the Western Conference playoffs last year as the Nuggets have dominated the Lakers over the past 24 months. Jokic didn’t play against the Warriors on Monday, but if he’s active for Wednesday, the three-time NBA MVP award winner over the past four years could have another dominant effort as he’s averaging a triple-double with 29.1 points, 12.8 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game this season. Meanwhile, the Lakers are 2-3 over their last five games without James. The Lakers opened as 1-point favorites on sportsbooks, but that quickly moved to the Nuggets being favored on Wednesday morning and the line has continued to increase to -2 later into the day. DraftKings Sportsbooks is offering the Nuggets at -2 at -110 odds.
Under 232.5
Two of three Nuggets vs. Lakers games this season have resulted in the Under hitting and both of those matchups finished with fewer than 233 points scored. The Under has won in eight of Denver’s last 13 games. Neither team is at 100% health and even if the majority of stars on both teams suit up, that could lead to a slower-paced game. None of the three regular-season Lakers vs. Nuggets games in Los Angeles have reached 233 points over the last two years either. All this has the model projecting the Under to hit in well over 60% of simulations.
Luka Doncic Under 50.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118 on FanDuel)
Doncic has 21 points, nine rebounds and 14 assists against the Spurs on Monday to finish below this total and he’s finished Under 50.5 P+R+A in three of his last five games. Doncic is probable while battling an ankle injury, but that could slow him down as the Lakers may want to try and play at a slower pace given their poor results against the Nuggets over the last two years. Doncic also went Under this total in two previous matchups against Denver this season, once with the Lakers and once with Dallas. The 26-year-old shot 25% from the field, including 1 of 7 on 3-pointers, against the Spurs on Monday and given his recent poor shooting, battling an injury and lack of dominant performances against Denver, the model projects Doncic to finish Under his P+R+A total. Some sportsbooks have already dropped Doncic’s P+R+A to 49.5, but it remains at 50.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook at -118 odds.
Want more NBA picks for Wednesday?
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