The fifth-seeded Dallas Mavericks will look to take advantage of their home court as they try to secure a 2-1 lead over the top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 3 of their best-of-seven Western Conference semifinal series on Saturday. Dallas evened the series with a 119-110 win over Oklahoma City on Thursday. The Thunder (57-25), who swept the New Orleans Pelicans in the first round, are 26-17 on the road in 2023-2024, including the 2024 NBA playoffs. The Mavericks (50-32), who defeated the Los Angeles Clippers in six games in the opening round, are 27-17 on their home court this year.
Tipoff from American Airlines Center in Dallas is set for 3:30 p.m. ET. OKC leads the all-time series 105-94, including a 15-10 edge in the postseason. Dallas is the 2.5-point favorite in the latest Thunder vs. Mavericks odds from SportsLine consensus, while the over/under for total points scored is 218. Before making any Mavericks vs. Thunder picks, you’ll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past five-plus seasons. The model entered the conference semifinals in the 2024 NBA playoffs on a sizzling 94-61 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning more than $2,800. Anyone following the model has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Mavs vs. Thunder and just locked in its 2024 NBA playoff predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Thunder vs. Mavs:
- Thunder vs. Mavericks spread: Dallas -2.5
- Thunder vs. Mavericks over/under: 218 points
- Thunder vs. Mavericks money line: Dallas -143, OKC +121
- OKC: 50-37-1 ATS this season
- DAL: Hit the game total Under in 42 of their last 65 games (+16.70 units)
- Thunder vs. Mavericks picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Mavericks can cover
Point guard Luka Doncic is listed as questionable with a right knee sprain and left ankle soreness. Despite his ailments, Doncic still played 41 minutes in Thursday’s win, scoring 29 points and grabbing 10 rebounds. He has five double-doubles and one triple-double in the postseason. In a 116-111 loss to the Los Angeles Clippers in Game 4 of their first-round series, he scored 29 points, while grabbing 10 rebounds and dishing out 10 assists.
Point guard Kyrie Irving also powers the Mavericks offense. In eight postseason starts this season, Irving is averaging 23.5 points, 5.3 assists, 4.8 rebounds and 1.9 steals in 39.9 minutes. In Game 4 of the first-round series with Los Angeles, he poured in 40 points, while adding seven rebounds and five assists. He had 30 points and added six rebounds, four assists, two blocks and two steals in the 114-101 Game 6 win over the Clippers on May 3. See which team to pick here.
Why the Thunder can cover
Point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had the hot hand for Oklahoma City in Thursday’s loss, scoring 33 points, grabbing 12 rebounds and dishing out eight assists in 41 minutes. He has scored 24 or more points in all eight playoff games, and registered a pair of double-doubles. In six postseason starts, he is averaging 28.5 points, 7.5 rebounds, 6.2 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.2 blocks in 38.3 minutes. He is connecting on 48% of his field goals and 78.8% of his free throws.
Forward Jalen Williams has been a consistent contributor for the Thunder. He is coming off a 20-point, four-rebound and four-assist effort in a Game 2 loss to Dallas. In six postseason starts, he is averaging 20.5 points, 6.3 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 1.3 steals in 37 minutes. He is hitting on 49% of his shots from the floor, including 40.7% from 3-point range and 77.8% of his free throws. See which team to pick here.
How to make Thunder vs. Mavericks picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, projecting 217 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Mavericks vs. Thunder, and which side of the spread hits more than 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that has returned more than $2,800 on its NBA picks this season, and find out.
