Who can qualify for Turin, and how?
The top four seeds—Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, and Daniil Medvedev—have clinched spots in Turin. The fifth seed, Taylor Fritz, is well on his way. Novak Djokovic, currently in sixth place in the race, has withdrawn from Bercy and will leave his finals fate to chance.
It’s the next five seeds—Andrey Rublev, Casper Ruud, Grigor Dimitrov, Alex de Minaur, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Tommy Paul—who will be at the center of the action. Ruud and Rublev are currently in the seventh and eighth positions, with De Minaur, Dimitrov, Paul, and Tsitsipas following just behind. None of them happens to be on fire at the moment: They were all in action last week, either in Vienna or Basel, but only De Minaur managed to make a semifinal.
That puts the Australian within striking distance of Rublev; De Minaur starts against Mariano Navone this week, and could play Taylor Fritz in the third round. Dimitrov and Paul need to make the final in Bercy to pass Rublev, while Tsitsipas needs to win the title.
How do the top four seeds’ draws look?
As far as Turin goes, Sinner, Alcaraz, Medvedev, and Zverev are already in. As far as the year-end No. 1 ranking goes, Sinner already has that locked down as well. But there are still points and dollars to be earned, and momentum to be gained heading toward Turin.
Sinner has won just one match in Bercy in his career, and may have the toughest road of the top four this year. While one of his potentially difficult early opponents, Felix Auger Aliassime, pulled out with a back injury, another, Ben Shelton, who reached the final in Basel this week, could be waiting for him in his opener. After that, Sinner could face 2002 champ Holger Rune in the third round, and Taylor Fritz in the quarters.
