When breaking down the stylistic battle, it’s hard not to start with Zverev being the better server and returner. Over the last 52 weeks, Zverev’s hold percentage is 86.2% and his break percentage is 28.7% on clay. Tabilo’s hold percentage is 83.5% and his break percentage is 23.7% in that span. But over the course of their careers, Zverev has an even bigger edge in both categories. So, if the red-hot version of Tabilo doesn’t show up here, he’s going to get boat raced.
Zverev also happens to be playing some of the best tennis of his life from the baseline. Zverev has always had one of the top backhands on tour, and that two-hander has been a weapon over the last two weeks. But Zverev’s forehand, which is usually a weakness, has been tremendous in Rome. Zverev is getting a lot of shape on his forehand, hitting it with heavy topspin and getting it deep in the court. And he is also flattening it out and hitting his spots when going a bit bigger. If Zverev is that precise from the forehand wing, he’s borderline untouchable.
All in all, I’m just not sure what Tabilo will be able to do to legitimately make Zverev uncomfortable out there. Normally, attacking the forehand side would be the way in against Zverev, but that doesn’t seem like an option right now. So, I’m expecting this to be a pretty straightforward match—Zverev has the look of a player that could very well win his maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros.
Pick: Zverev -1.5 Sets (-120)
