The reason the serve and forehand being down hurts is that Fritz possess both of those weapons. The American is one of the best servers on tour, and he should have very little trouble getting through his service games with Turin’s court speeds. He also has weapons from both sides of the court, along with an ability to grind. Fritz is going to be able to hang with De Minaur in longer rallies, and the American is the one that is far more likely to finish them off.
Fritz is also a rock-solid returner, and it feels like he’s only getting better and better. The American uses his length to get his racquet on absolutely everything. That should serve him well against de Minaur. If the Australian doesn’t find a way to ratchet things up with his serve, Fritz is going to give himself a ton of opportunities to break.
I know the head-to-head history between these two shows it’s close—5-3, to de Minaur—but it’s hard to use that when looking at recent form. Honestly, Fritz looks like the fifth-best player in the world right now. He should be able to beat this version of de Minaur, and I like him to do it by a decent margin.
Pick: Fritz -2.5 Games (-125)
