Goffin has looked like a different player this week, but I don’t like to get caught up in small sample sizes. And this is a player that holds serve at just a 72.4% clip. That should mean Fritz will have some opportunities to break in this match. Meanwhile, I’m not sure those opportunities will come Goffin’s way. Fritz has a hold percentage of 88.3% this season, and the conditions in Shanghai are extremely fast. That’s why Fritz has only been broken twice all tournament, and he saved his best serving performance for the win over Rune. Fritz made 72.9% of his first serves in that match, and he saved the only break point he faced.
Fritz will also have a pretty significant physical advantage against Goffin. He has spent half as much time on court as his opponent this tournament. On top of that, I’m not sure where Goffin will have a clear edge from the baseline. The 33-year-old has a really good backhand, but Fritz is also awesome from that side of the court. The American will be happy to engage in backhand-to-backhand exchanges, taking away one of Goffin’s biggest strengths. I also like the way Fritz uses his length to defend. It’s a huge asset on a faster court, where players can get used to hitting clean winners. Those don’t come easy against a locked-in Fritz.
Overall, I like the idea of playing the Under on 22.5 games, which you can find at a slightly juiced number. However, it’s worth paying the extra price for the slightly higher total, as it wouldn’t be surprising if Goffin hangs around in one of the two sets. That’s also why I prefer going with the Under instead of the game spread. Generally speaking, if the two bets are similar, you might as well go with the total. That way you have an outside chance of winning if your handicap is completely off and the other player ends up winning.
Pick: Under 22.5 Games (-156)
