Zverev is obviously one of the best servers on the planet, so Tsitsipas’ mediocre return game will need to be a little better in order to hold on. But Zverev can also be a bit of a pusher, making his game an awkward fit in an indoor hard-court event. Tsitsipas would be wise to rip shots to Zverev’s forehand side. While Tsitsipas’ one-handed backhand is viewed as one of the weaker shots on tour, Zverev’s forehand is similarly targetable. That’s part of the reason Tsitsipas has enjoyed success in their head-to-head history.
Putting too much stock in a head-to-head series can be a mistake in any matchup. But one of Tsitsipas’ wins over Zverev came at this very tournament, as he earned a 7-6 (2), 6-4 win last year. Tsitsipas has now beaten Zverev in three of their last four matches, and the one loss came at United Cup. Also, Tsitsipas has won at least one set in seven of the last eight matches that these two have played, which is another reason it’s hard to envision Zverev getting through easily.
It just feels like the oddsmakers are expecting Tsitsipas to get back to playing like he did for most of this year, but the 26-year-old is clearly at a different level right now. He’s locked in and enjoying his time in Paris, and he should be confident that he can get the job done here.
Pick: Tsitsipas +1.5 Sets (-165)
