On Sunday, Victor Wembanyama’s extremely promising career hit an important milestone: he played in his first All-Star Game. It turned out to be, in all likelihood, the final game of his second NBA season. Wembanyama is now expected to miss the remainder of the season due to deep vein thrombosis in his right shoulder. What a difference a few days can make.
The priority now is ensuring a speedy recovery. By all accounts, the Spurs expect this to be an isolated incident. Wembanyama’s long-term outlook is positive, and San Antonio’s future remains bright because of it. But what about the short-term? What does Wembanyama’s absence for the remainder of this season mean for the both the Spurs and the rest of the league? Below are some of the key ripple effects of Thursday’s news.
1. Wemby is out of the running for awards
Wembanyama will end this season having played 65 games. That obviously takes him out of the running for a number of honors he was in line to receive. He will no longer be the Defensive Player of the Year, nor will he be chosen to an All-Defense or All-NBA Team after the season.
Wembanyama obviously has plenty of time to win trophies, and he still has two years to earn eligibility for the more lucrative Rose Rule max contract. In all likelihood, he does so, but removing him from the running this season makes it far easier for other players to cash in on the contractual benefits that come with those honors.
The big “winner” here, if anyone can really win an injury, would be Evan Mobley. Last offseason, Mobley reportedly signed a five-year, $224 million max rookie extension with the Cavaliers. However, that contract reportedly had Rose Rule escalators included that could take it to $269 million. Mobley was already an All-NBA candidate, but removing Wembanyama from the picture almost certainly opens up a spot. Wembanyama had all but run away with Defensive Player of the Year (he was a -2000 favorite on Thursday morning before the injury news broke). Now, Mobley is right in the thick of the race. Either honor would make Mobley eligible for those Rose Rule escalators.
The same is true for Jaren Jackson Jr., though he is fighting for a true, 35% super max as a slightly older player. Jackson earning eligibility has a chance to be a win-win situation for both him and the Grizzlies. Memphis traded Marcus Smart at the deadline largely to free up some cap space over the summer. They did so figuring they might need to renegotiate-and-extend Jackson’s contract. However, if Jackson is supermax eligible, they’ll simply be able to tack on his new mega extension to his existing deal without touching that cap space, giving them a bit more short-term flexibility to work with.
Cade Cunningham and Scottie Barnes both reportedly have the same Rose Rule escalators in their deals that Mobley does, but are only in the running for All-NBA, not Defensive Player of the Year. Trae Young stands out as a possible All-NBA candidate who could make himself eligible for a 35% supermax with his current team as well, though considering he was a replacement All-Star, the odds are probably against him. Every slot counts when it comes to these eligibility rules, so removing Wembanyama from these races has a chance to make other players a lot of money.
2. The Spurs are likely headed for the lottery
Even with De’Aaron Fox in tow, it’s hard to imagine the Spurs reaching the postseason without Wembanyama. They are 3.5 games out of the No. 10 seed in the Western Conference as of this writing, and their net rating for the season dips by more than 10 points per 100 possessions whenever Wembanyama is out. There isn’t a proven backup center on the roster right now. Zach Collins was traded in the Fox deal. Charles Bassey is in and out of the rotation, and the same is true of Sandro Mamukelashvili. Jeremy Sochan has played some backup center, and he will likely continue to get a look in a small-ball lineups. But the backbone of San Antonio’s roster is now out.
That probably won’t impact the playoff race much, but it could prove quite meaningful in the draft. The Spurs aren’t exactly hurting for young talent, but now they’ll likely add another lottery pick to the mix next summer. If the lottery were held today, San Antonio would have the 10th-best odds. The Spurs are currently tied with the Trail Blazers in the win column, though, so there is room for them to rise up the draft board depending on how the rest of the season goes. Note that the Spurs also control Atlanta’s unprotected first-round pick, so they could potentially have two lottery choices in June.
That may not be what the Spurs were planning when they traded for Fox, but it’s obviously not a bad place to be. This is a very strong draft class, and if Wembanyama continues to progress as he has thus far, the Spurs won’t be using their own first-round pick in the lottery again for quite some time. It never hurts to add one extra blue-chip talent.
3. Spurs will have to reconsider offseason plans
Now we’re venturing into speculative territory here, but it’s worth noting that the Spurs have only gotten five games out of Fox thus far. That obviously isn’t enough time to fairly judge his fit with Wembanyama, or how the rest of San Antonio’s young talent fits with the pair of them.
So what does that mean? Well, a two-month sample might have given them an idea whether the three-man trio of Fox, Stephon Castle and Jeremy Sochan is viable together, for instance, as relatively limited shooters. Those three are still all available, but the experiment is no longer fair because it doesn’t include Wembanyama’s unusual shooting from the center position. Now, the Spurs basically have to run it back next season to truly test how these incumbent players fit together.
Is that the end of the world? No. Outside of the Fox trade, the Spurs have proven comfortable slow-playing their build around Wembanyama. Another year of evaluation isn’t going to hurt anybody. It just means that we can probably rule out another big trade like the Fox deal until at least 2026.
